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2026 in climate change

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This article documents notable events, research findings, scientific and technological advances, and human actions to measure, predict, mitigate, and adapt to the effects of global warming and climate change—during the year 2026.

Summaries

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Measurements and statistics

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  • "Vital Signs of the Planet" as presented by NASA at the end of 2025 / beginning of 2026[1]
    "Vital Signs of the Planet" as presented by NASA at the end of 2025 / beginning of 2026[1]
Non-linear growth in the global warming effect of accumulating long-lived greenhouse gases contributed to economic damage over a 60-year period estimated to be over five times as large as that of a 30-year period (shown in chart). A Nature article estimated future damages from past emissions to be at least an order of magnitude larger than historical damages from the same emissions.[2]
  • 9 January: a report published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences said that ocean heat content in 2025 had reached a new record for nine consecutive years.[3]
  • 9 January (reported): an Oxfam report concluded that the richest 1% exhausted their annual carbon budget in ten days.[4] (Carbon budget is the amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted while keeping the planet within 1.5 °C of global warming.)
  • 22 January: Ember's European Electricity Review 2026 reported that in 2025, wind and solar energy provided 30% of EU electricity, surpassing fossil power (29%) for the first time, and generating more power than fossil sources in 14 of 27 EU countries.[5]
  • 6 March: a study published in Geophysical Research Letters removed estimated influence of three natural variability factors and concluded with over 98% confidence that global warming from 2015 to 2025 accelerated more than during any previous decade.[6]
  • 6 March: a study published in Science Advances concluded that compound drought-heatwave events (CDHEs) have increased nearly eightfold since the early 2000s, from 1.6 to 13.1% per degree Celsius, with considerable regional variation.[7]
  • 10 March: a study published in Environmental Research: Health reported extensive statistics on present and projected worsening of heat- and humidity-related livability limitations.[8]
  • 25 March: a study published in Nature estimated that, from 1990 through 2020, carbon dioxide emissions in the US caused $10.2 trillion in cumulative damages by 2020, with about 30% occurring within the US itself.[9] Damages from China were estimated at $8.7 trillion, and from the EU, $6.42 trillion.[9] The researchers said that future damages from past emissions are at least an order of magnitude larger than historical damages from the same emissions.[9]
  • 17 April: based on climate-driven weakening of day-night weather constraints, a study published in Science Advances estimated that from 1975 to 2024, annual potential burning hours for wildfires in North America rose 36%.[10]
  • 21 April: Ember's Global Electricity Review 2026 said that, in 2025, clean power growth exceeded the rise in overall global electricity demand (fossil fuel generation declining), and that renewables overtook coal power.[11]

Natural events and phenomena

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  • 4 February: a study published in Science Advances concluded that wildfire smoke fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was responsible for ~24,100 all-cause deaths per year in the contiguous United States.[12]
  • 12 February: a study published in Nature Geoscience estimated that the contribution associated with a La Niña-to-El Niño transition explains about 75% of the 2022-2023 extreme increase in Earth's energy uptake, contributing to the record global surface temperatures and widespread climate extremes observed in 2023–2024.[13]
  • 25 February: a study published in Nature Ecology & Evolution stated that long-term global warming was associated with an annual fish biomass decline of up to 19.8% between 1993 and 2021 in major Northern Hemisphere basins.[14]
  • 25 February: a study published in PLOS One reported that between 1794 and 2024, there was an average absolute shift in flowering of tropical plants of 2.04 days per decade (range: 0.037–14.10), comparable to changes seen in temperate, boreal and alpine desert plants, and severe enough to cause interspecific misalignment between pollinators and seed dispersers.[15]
  • 9 March: a study published in Atmospheric Science Letters estimated that, in the 3 May 2025 hailstorm in Western Europe, a 30% increase in probability of larger hail stones and a  2 cm (0.79 in) increase in hailstone size could be attributed to climate change.[16]
  • 10 March: a study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research considered continental-ocean mass redistribution due to melting of polar ice sheets and global glaciers and changes in Earth's hydrology, and said that 21st century climate change may be increasing the length of Earth's days at a rate among the highest in 3.6 million years.[17]
  • March: the World Meteorological Organization's State of the Global Climate 2025 introduced a new indicator of the Earth's energy balance and concluded that Earth’s energy budget is more out of balance than at any previous time in the observational record.[18]
  • 25 March: a study published in Nature concluded that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate (2 °C) global warming.[19]
  • 26 March: a study published in Nature Communications concluded that environmental heat stress thresholds may be cooler and drier than previously thought, more specifically, that "non-survivable conditions" are occurring during present-day heat events that are below the six-hour 35 °C wet-bulb temperature threshold that currently defines such conditions.[20]
  • 8 April: a study published in Science Advances concluded that over the past 20 years, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has weakened at four different latitudes along the western boundary of the North Atlantic Ocean, that boundary thought to constitute the "canary in a coal mine" for the tendency of the AMOC as a whole.[21]
  • 10 April: NOAA's "Final La Niña Advisory" concluded that La Niña conditions had transitioned to ENSO-neutral, which was expected to persist through Northern Hemisphere summer.[22]
  • 15 April: a study published in Science Advances estimated a slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) of 51±8%—a weakening ~60% stronger than suggested by multimodel mean estimates.[23]
  • 16 April (reported): an editorial published in Nature noted that, in 2025, mosquitos were found in Iceland for the first time, and were said to be "a warning that the Arctic lacks a system for monitoring arthropods and anticipating biological risks before they escalate".[24]
  • 4 May: a study published in Nature Climate Change estimated that airborne microplastics and nanoplastics add direct radiative forcing of ~1.34 W/m2, exceeding that of black carbon by a factor of 4.7.[25]
  • 6 May: a study published in Science concluded that, on 10 August 2025, climate change had "preconditioned" a >64 million cubic meter landslide in Alaska's Tracy Arm fjord that caused a 481-meter run megatsunami after an initial 100-meter high breaking wave traveling at over 70 metres per second (160 mph).[26]

Actions, and goal statements

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Science and technology

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  • January (reported): a Chinese company launched the first megawatt-level airborne wind turbine—a 60x40x40 m (197x131x131 ft) helium-filled aerostat—providing electricity through a tether cable from 2,000 metres (6,600 ft) above the ground.[27]
  • 14 January: at Concordia Station, Antarctica, the Ice Memory Foundation inaugurated a global repository of mountain ice cores, to ensure that future generations will be able to study past climate conditions.[28]
  • 15 January: a study published in Nature Climate Change estimated the 2020 ocean-based social cost of carbon (SCC) to be almost double that of prior SCC estimates that didn't consider ocean-related impacts.[29]
  • 12 February: anomalous increases in tropical sea surface temperatures have caused NOAA to revise the threshold distinguishing La Niña and El Niño (ENSO) events from each other.[30] The new method replaces a dependency on a 30-year climate base period with the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI): a comparison of the ENSO region to the global tropics.[30]
  • 4 March: a study published in Nature concluded that sea level measurements that have been based on geoid models rather than actual sea level measurements have underestimated the degree of sea level rise.[31]
  • 24 April: a study published in Science Advances concluded that artificial closure of the Bering Strait can extend the safe carbon budget of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), provided that the AMOC is strong enough at the time of closure.[32]

Political, economic, legal, and cultural actions

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Threat to global stability and prosperity

     Let's tell it like it is: The world's addiction to fossil fuels is one of the greatest threats to global stability and prosperity. Three fourths of humanity lives in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels; dependent on energy they do not control at prices they cannot predict; watching development budgets siphoned into fuel bills; at the constant mercy of geopolitical turmoil and supply disruptions.

— UN Secretary General António Guterres
18 January 2026[33]
'Suicidal' model of capitalism

     There is inertia in the power and the economy of this archaic form of energy—fossil fuels—that lead to death. Undoubtedly, that form of capital can commit suicide, taking with it humanity and [other] life. The question that needs to be asked is whether capitalism can truly adapt to a non-fossil energy model.

Mitigation goal statements

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  • 7 April: Global Energy Outlook 2026: How the World Lost the Goal of 1.5°C, published by Resources for the Future, concluded that achieving the 2015 Paris Agreement's goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 °C is no longer plausible, and that limiting the rise to 2 °C will be "extremely challenging" and "requires additional policy effort".[47]

Adaptation goal statements

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Consensus

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Projections

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  • 28 January: a study published in Nature forecast that climate change could lead to 123 million additional malaria cases and 532,000 additional deaths in Africa between 2024 and 2050 under current malaria control levels.[49] Extreme weather events are thought to cause 79% of additional cases and 93% of additional deaths.[49]
  • 6 May: a study published in Nature projected that global warming of 1.5–1.9 °C (2.7–3.4 °F) and deforestation of 22–28% would cause 62−77% of the Amazon rainforest to transition to grassland.[50]

Significant publications

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  • "Global Water Bankruptcy / Living Beyond Our Hydrological Means in the Post-Crisis Era" (PDF). United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health. 20 January 2026.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  • "State of the Global Climate 2025". World Meteorological Organization (WMO). March 2026.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  • "Food security to crumble in face of climate change". 23 March 2026. Archived from the original on 24 March 2026. (Food Security Index ratings for 162 countries under different degrees of global warming)
  • Raimi, Daniel; Joiner, Emily; Hubbell, Bryan; Lohawala, Nafisa; Robertson, Molly (7 April 2026). "Global Energy Outlook 2026: How the World Lost the Goal of 1.5°C" (PDF). Resources for the Future. Archived (PDF) from the original on 7 April 2026.
  • "European State of the Climate / Report 2025". World Meteorological Organization (WMO). April 2026.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  • "24/7 Renewables - The Economics of Firm Solar and Wind" (PDF). International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). May 2026. ISBN 978-92-9260-736-4. Archived (PDF) from the original on 7 May 2026.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Climate change / Vital signs". science.NASA.gov. NASA. 31 December 2025. Archived from the original on 31 December 2025.
  2. ^
  3. ^ Pan, Y., Cheng, L., Abraham, J. et al. "Ocean Heat Content Sets Another Record in 2025". Advances in Atmospheric Sciences: 6737. 9 January 2026. doi:10.1007/s00376-026-5876-0.
  4. ^ "Richest 1% have blown through their fair share of carbon emissions for 2026 in just 10 days, says Oxfam". Oxfam. 9 January 2026. Archived from the original on 11 January 2026.
  5. ^ "European Electricity Review 2026" (PDF). Ember. 22 January 2026. Archived (PDF) from the original on 23 January 2026.
  6. ^ Foster, G.; Rahmstorf, S. (6 March 2026). "Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly". Geophysical Research Letters. 53 (5). doi:10.1029/2025GL118804.
  7. ^ Kim, Yong-Jun; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Ng, Benjamin (6 March 2026). "Nonlinear increase of compound drought-heatwave events since the early 2000s". Science Advances. 12 (10): eaea3038.
  8. ^ Parsons, L. A.; Baldwin, J. W.; Guzman-Echavarria, G.; Jay, O; Kalmus, P.; Staudmyer, H.; Vanos, J. K.; Wolff, N. H. (10 March 2026). "Intensifying global heat threatens livability for younger and older adults". Environmental Research: Health. 4: 015013. doi:10.1088/2752-5309/ae3c3a.
  9. ^ a b c Burke, Marshall; Zahid, Mustafa; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Hsiang, Solomon (25 March 2026). "Quantifying climate loss and damage consistent with a social cost of carbon". Nature. 651: 959–966. doi:10.1038/s41586-026-10272-6.
  10. ^ Luo, Kaiwei; Wang, Xianli; Castellanos-Acuna, Dante; Flannigan, Mike (17 April 2026). "A weakened diurnal weather constraint leads to longer burning hours in North America". Science Advances. 12 (16). doi:10.1126/sciadv.aed0725.
  11. ^ "Global Electricity Review 2026" (PDF). Ember Energy. 21 April 2026. p. 8. Archived (PDF) from the original on 24 April 2026.
  12. ^ Zhang, Min; Castro, Edgar; Shtein, Alexandra; Peralta, Adjani A.; et al. (4 February 2026). "Wildfire smoke PM2.5 and mortality rate in the contiguous United States: A causal modeling study". Science Advances. 12 (6). doi:10.1126/sciadv.adw5890. PMC 12871454.
  13. ^ Tsuchida, Ko; Kosaka, Yu; Minobe, Shoshiro (12 February 2026). "Multi-year La Niña–El Niño transition influenced Earth's extreme energy uptake in 2022–2023". Nature Geoscience. doi:10.1038/s41561-026-01921-6.
  14. ^ Chaikin, Shahar; Bonzalez-Trujillo, Juan David; Araujo, Miguel B. (25 February 2026). "Long-term warming reduces fish biomass, but heatwaves shift it". Nature Ecology & Evolution. doi:10.1038/s41559-026-03013-5.
  15. ^ Graves, Skylar; Manzitto-Tripp, Erin A. (25 February 2026). "Observing shifts in phenology of tropical flowering plants". PLoS One. 21 (2) e0342105. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0342105.
  16. ^ Faranda, Davide; Alberti, Tommaso (9 March 2026). "Investigating the Role of Climate Change in the 3 May 2025 Western Europe Hailstorm Using Atmospheric Analogs". Atmospheric Science Letters. 27 (3) e70016. doi:10.1002/asl2.70016.
  17. ^ Shahvandi, Mostafa Kiani; Soja, Benedikt (10 March 2026). "Climate-Induced Length of Day Variations Since the Late Pliocene". Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. 131 (3) e2025JB032161. doi:10.1029/2025JB032161.
  18. ^ State of the Global Climate 2025 (PDF) (Flagship annual climate report). State of the Global Climate (1 ed.). Geneva: World Meteorological Organization. 2026. p. 46. doi:10.59327/WMO/S/CRI/SOC1. ISBN 978-92-63-11391-7. Retrieved 24 March 2026.
  19. ^ Bevacqua, Emanuele; Fischer, Erich; Sillman, Jana; Zscheischler, Jakob (25 March 2026). "Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes". Nature. 651: 946–953.
  20. ^ Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Gregory, Catherine H.; Vanos, Jennifer K.; Baldwin, Jane W.; Staudmyer, Haley; Guzman-Echavarria, Gisel; Jay, Ollie (26 March 2026). "Deadly heat stress conditions are already occurring". Nature Communications. 17 2590. doi:10.1038/s41467-026-70485-1.
  21. ^ Xing, Qianjiang; Elipot, Shane; Johns, William E.; Smeed, David A.; Moat, Ben I.; Loder, John W. (8 April 2026). "Meridionally consistent decline in the observed western boundary contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation". Science Advances. 12 (15). doi:10.1126/sciadv.adz7738.
  22. ^ "El Niño & La Niña (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 10 April 2026. Archived from the original on 10 April 2026.
  23. ^ Portmann, Valentin; Swingedouw, Didier; Khattab, Omar; Chavent, Marie (15 April 2026). "Observational constraints project a ~50% AMOC weakening by the end of this century". Science Advances. 12 (16). doi:10.1126/sciadv.adx4298.
  24. ^ Koltz, Amanda M.; Culler, Lauren E. (16 April 2026). "The Arctic's growing mosquito problem". Science. 392 (6795): 235. doi:10.1126/science.aeh9505.
  25. ^ Liu, Yu; Fu, Hongbo; Zhang, Hongliang; Wang, Yunhang; et al. (4 May 2026). "Atmospheric warming contributions from airborne microplastics and nanoplastics". Nature Climate Change. 16: 598–605. doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02620-1.
  26. ^ Shugar, Dan H.; Barnhart, Katherine R.; Berdahl, Mira; Caplan-Auerbach, Jacqueline; et al. (6 May 2026). "A 481-meter-high landslide-tsunami in a cruise ship–frequented Alaska fjord". Science. doi:10.1126/science.aec3187.
  27. ^ Sinha, Sujita (13 January 2026). "China's world-first megawatt-level 'windmill' airship rises 6,560 ft, feeds grid". Interesting Engineering. Archived from the original on 15 January 2026.
  28. ^ Winfield, Nicole; Santalucia, Paulo (14 January 2026). "A novel sanctuary in Antarctica is preserving ice samples from rapidly melting glaciers". AP News. Archived from the original on 15 January 2026.
  29. ^ Bastien-Olvera, Bernardo A.; Aburto-Oropeza, Octavio; Brander, Luke M.; Cheung, William W. L.; Emmerling, Johannes; Free, christopher M.; Granella, Francesco; Tavoni, Massimo; Verschuur, Jasper; Ricke, Katharine (15 January 2026). "Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon". Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02533-5.
  30. ^ a b "CPC adopts Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for reliable, responsive monitoring and tracking of ENSO". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 12 February 2026. Archived from the original on 24 February 2026.
  31. ^ Seegeer, Katharina; Minderhoud, Philip S. J. (4 March 2026). "Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments". Nature. doi:10.1038/s41586-026-10196-1.
  32. ^ Soons, Jelle; Dijkstra, Henk A. (24 April 2026). "The effects of a constructed closure of the Bering Strait on AMOC tipping behavior". Science Advances. 12 (17). doi:10.1126/sciadv.aeb7887.
  33. ^ Guterres, António (18 February 2026). "At International Energy Agency Ministerial Meeting, Secretary-General Calls for 'Honest Dialogue', Global Platform to Phase Out Fossil Fuels". United Nations.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  34. ^ Watts, Jonathan; Harvey, Fiona (29 April 2026). "'Suicidal' model of capitalism leading to war and fascism, climate summit told". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 29 April 2026.
  35. ^ Sengupta, Somini; Friedman, Lisa (7 January 2025). "Trump Pulls Out of Global Climate Treaty". The New York Times.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  36. ^ a b c Friedman, Lisa (27 January 2026). "America Officially Leaves the Paris Climate Agreement. For the Second Time". The New York Times.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  37. ^ Ahmed, Issam (16 January 2026). "US To Repeal The Basis For Its Climate Rules: What To Know". Barron's. Archived from the original on 18 January 2026.
  38. ^ Schonhardt, Sara (8 January 2026). "US ditches world's biggest climate fund, a day after spurning landmark treaty". Politico.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  39. ^ Corder, Mike (28 January 2026). "Dutch government is ordered to protect residents on Caribbean island of Bonaire from climate change". AP News. Archived from the original on 29 January 2026.
  40. ^ Kaminski, Isabella (28 January 2026). "Dutch government discriminated against Bonaire islanders over climate adaptation, court rules". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 24 March 2026.
  41. ^ a b Friedman, Lisa (30 January 2026). "A Secret Panel to Question Climate Science Was Unlawful, Judge Rules". The New York Times.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  42. ^ Rosenberg, Robin L. (6 February 2026). "(letter:) Dear Attorney General McCuskey," (PDF). Federal Judicial Center. Archived (PDF) from the original on 11 February 2026.
  43. ^ Gross, Liza (3 March 2026). "Scientists, Engineers and Legal Experts Condemn Partisan Attack on Scientific Reference Manual for Judges". Inside Climate News. Archived from the original on 4 March 2026.
  44. ^ Spring, Jake; Wojahn, Ambrosia; Dennis, Brady (12 February 2026). "Trump repeals U.S. government's power to regulate climate". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on 13 February 2026.
  45. ^ "Petition for Review" (PDF). The New York Times. 19 March 2026. Archived (PDF) from the original on 19 March 2026. (Times copy of court document)
  46. ^ "Trump administration fires entire National Science Board". Reuters. 27 April 2026. Archived from the original on 29 April 2026.
  47. ^ Raimi, Daniel; Joiner, Emily; Hubbell, Bryan; Lohawala, Nafisa; Robertson, Molly (7 April 2026). "Global Energy Outlook 2026: How the World Lost the Goal of 1.5°C" (PDF). Resources for the Future. Archived (PDF) from the original on 7 April 2026.
  48. ^ Sandlund, Isak; Bjälkebring, Pär; Bergquist, Magnus (8 January 2026). "Meta-analytical evidence of a self–other discrepancy in climate change-related risk perceptions". Nature Sustainability. doi:10.1038/s41893-025-01717-3.
  49. ^ a b Symons, Tasmin L.; Moran, Alexander; Balzarolo, Ann; Vargas, Camilo; et al. (28 January 2026). "Projected impacts of climate change on malaria in Africa". Nature. doi:10.1038/s41586-025-10015-z.
  50. ^ Wunderling, Nico; Sakschewski, Boris; Rockstrom, Johan; Flores, Bernardo M.; Hirota, Marina; Staal, Arie (6 May 2026). "Deforestation-induced drying lowers Amazon climate threshold". Nature. doi:10.1038/s41586-026-10456-0.
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Organizations

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Surveys, summaries and report lists

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